3.1 Demographics Overview
Based on the 2011 census, it is estimated that in 2013 there were approximately 273,100 people living
in South Gloucestershire. Around 60% living in the urban areas surrounding Bristol, around 20% in the small market towns to the north and the rest in the rural areas in between. Some 5.7% of the population is estimated to be of black and minority ethnic origin, which is about half the national average.
The population is set to grow substantially, due to the number of births exceeding the number of deaths as well as net inward migration. Projections are that there will be 283,700 people in 2018 and 318,400 in 2037.
Older people aged over 65 make up 17.6% of the population compared to 18.2% for England and under 15s make up 17.4%, slightly lower than the England average of 17.8%. The dispersal of the older and young populations in South Gloucestershire is not evenly distributed, with the highest proportion of 0-15’s in Bradley Stoke South (8.9%) and over 65s in Westerleigh, Severn (30%). South Gloucestershire has a broadly similar proportion of people at working age (63.3%) compared to the rest of England (63.5%).
However, the population of South Gloucestershire has increased by nearly 10% since 2002. In terms of numbers, most growth was seen in those aged 45-49, a rise of 5,471 people accounting for a 32.1% increase, followed by 65-69 year olds (4,225 people, 37.5% increase) and 20-24 year olds (3,743 people, 29.5% increase) with the over 85’s increasing by 2,012 in number but by 75% in terms of proportional increase. The main driver for population growth in recent years has been natural change (more births than deaths), and inward migration.